21Shares launches DOGE ETF, with a 60%+ chance of approval

Competition in the ETF market is heating up, and the recovery prospects of Dogecoin (DOGE) have attracted much attention.

Following Bitwise and Grayscale, 21Shares has also entered the battle for the US spot DOGE ETF. As of the time of writing, the probability of DOGE ETF approval has exceeded 60%.

On April 9, 21Shares submitted documents to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to apply for the launch of the Dogecoin [DOGE] exchange-traded fund.

In the first quarter of 2025, the competition for the first spot memecoin ETF in the United States has become increasingly fierce, and Grayscale and Bitwise have previously submitted similar applications.

DOGE ETF approval probability

In February this year, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas revealed that the probability of DOGE ETF approval was as high as 75%, and even the prediction website Polymarket held the same view at the time.

Today, forecasters on Polymarket give a 64% chance of a DOGE ETF being approved in 2025.

However, the signals from the big players in the Dogecoin market are mixed.

Take miners, for example (red line), who have been hoarding coins since March, from 831 million to 907 million, which is the exact opposite of the reduction in holdings from December to February.

However, social popularity and active users are both declining, which shows that ordinary investors are not interested in memecoins during the first quarter's sell-off.

Even the "super big players" (holding more than 1 billion DOGE, marked in blue) are not interested.

They have been selling their Dogecoins since December last year, and this selling strategy is still continuing at the time of writing.

Because the price of DOGE is very sensitive to the operations of these "big wallets", their selling is likely to extinguish the hope of memecoin's recovery.

Looking at the price trend, we can see that the part of Dogecoin that rose due to the US election has all fallen, and it has returned to the price of $0.15 in November last year.

However, it is interesting that this price supported the market in March, but it is hard to say whether it can continue to hold up in the second quarter.

But once it falls below this price, Dogecoin may have to fall further, and it is possible to fall to $0.10 or even $0.06. On the other hand, if the bulls can pull the 200-day moving average (DMA) back above $0.25, then Dogecoin may still have a chance to win back in the market.