The crypto market is falling across the board. What do institutions and traders think about the future?

Has the crypto market really turned bearish? What are the views of institutions and traders?

On March 11, the market was seriously concerned about the rising risk of a recession in the United States. As of the close, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.08%, closing down nearly 900 points; the Nasdaq fell 4%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.7%.

Large technology stocks fell sharply, and Tesla plummeted 15.43%, setting the largest single-day drop in more than 4 years. The market value evaporated by $130 billion overnight, and the stock price was halved from its historical high.

At the same time, Bitcoin continued to fall and officially fell below $80,000. As of press time, Bitcoin was reported at $79,090, and the lowest fell to $76,560, with a single-day drop of more than 8%. In addition, Ethereum briefly fell below $1,800, and the lowest fell to around $1,760. The positions of several ETH whales were liquidated, and the address holding a leveraged long position of 1,500 weETH (total debt is about 2.27 million DAI) has been liquidated. After the price of ETH fell below $1,800, its 643.78 weETH (worth about $1.23 million) was confiscated.

Another whale on Maker also faced liquidation, involving 60,810 ETH (109 million US dollars). Because the Ethereum oracle price on Maker was not updated, the whale eventually reduced its position by 2,882 ETH in exchange for 5.21 million DAI to repay before the Maker oracle price was updated at 10 o'clock, slightly reducing the liquidation price to $1,781. In addition, a wallet suspected to be the Ethereum Foundation deposited 30,098 ETH (worth $56.08 million) into Maker 6 hours ago to reduce the liquidation price. Currently, the wallet holds 100,394 ETH (worth $182 million) in Maker, with a liquidation price of $1,127.06.

According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount of the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours reached $937 million, of which long orders were liquidated for $742 million and short orders were liquidated for $194 million, with a total of 331,076 people being liquidated. The largest single liquidation occurred in the BTCUSD trading pair on the Bybit exchange, worth $5.2611 million.

Since hitting an all-time high on December 16, 2024, the crypto market has evaporated $1.3 trillion in market value, a drop of 33%, equivalent to an average daily loss of $15.5 billion for 84 consecutive days. This marks the largest three-month market value correction in crypto history, and the total value of crypto has now fallen to its lowest level since November 6, 2024.

Is the bull market really over? How long will this round of decline last? In a market where panic is spreading, are there still opportunities to buy on dips? How do institutions and traders view the market outlook? Let's take a look.

Views of institutions and traders

Arthur Hayes: Don't rush to buy at the bottom, Bitcoin may bottom out around $70,000

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote that the plan is as follows: Be patient, don't rush. Bitcoin may bottom out around $70,000, a 36% correction from its historical high of $110,000, which is very normal in a bull market. Then, we need the U.S. stock market to plummet in free fall, and then the big players in traditional finance will go bankrupt. Then, the Federal Reserve and central banks of various countries will start to release water to save the market, and then it's time to go all in. Traders will try to buy at the bottom. If you are a risk-averse player, you can wait until the major central banks start to release water before increasing your position. You may not be able to accurately buy at the bottom, but you don't have to suffer in a long consolidation period and potential floating losses.

It also pointed out that BTC transactions are conducted 24X7, and anyone with an internet connection can trade in the world. It cannot be printed indefinitely, and the result of failure is bankruptcy or liquidation. No country's finances are directly tied to the rise in BTC prices. Stocks are traded 8X5, and only certain people can trade. They cannot be printed indefinitely, but if you have political connections, you may be bailed out after failure. US marginal tax revenue is directly linked to the stock market. Therefore, the stock market will eventually be bailed out, it just depends on whether your portfolio can survive when the bailout occurs. BTC is a truly free market, while the stock market is not. Therefore, in a fiat currency liquidity crisis, BTC will take the lead in the stock market in falling and rebounding.

Cathie Wood: The current market is digesting the final stage of a rolling recession

Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, said that the current market is digesting the final stage of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve more policy adjustment space than investors expect, which may push the US economy into a deflationary boom in the second half of this year. Cathie Wood believes that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be more flexible, and the market may underestimate this potential economic rebound momentum.

A rolling recession refers to an economic phenomenon in which different industries and sectors experience recessions in turn, while the overall economy and job market remain relatively stable.

YouHodler: Bitcoin's current consolidation period may evolve into a medium-term bear market

Ruslan Lienkha, head of markets at YouHodler, pointed out that last year, Bitcoin's consolidation phase lasted for several months (even up to half a year) before the next wave of gains. However, he believes that the current market environment is more complicated. Pessimism in the US stock market prevails, and concerns about a possible recession in the United States are also increasing. Given these factors, the current consolidation period may evolve into a medium-term bear market.

However, Lienkha pointed out that although Bitcoin may evolve into a safe-haven asset in the future, investors currently still regard it as a high-risk asset, and tend to react more violently to changes in market sentiment than traditional financial markets.

Yuga Vice President: If this is the beginning of a bear market, ETH may fall to $200-400

0xQuit, Vice President of Blockchain Business at Yuga Labs, said that seeing some people predict that the bottom of ETH is around $1,500, it seems reasonable given the market we are experiencing, but you need to ask yourself an important question-are we at the beginning of a bear market, or the end?

If this is the end of the bear market, that's great. BTC has hardly suffered much price damage, and its price is still stable at a level that was still an all-time high just a few months ago, which is very bullish for BTC.

However, if this is the beginning of a bear market, then be prepared to see ETH prices well below $1,500. It is quite ridiculous to think that the long-term final bottom of an asset that has fallen 30% this week and more than 50% in the past 3 months is only 20% away from here. If the bear market has just begun, ETH's target price may be $200-400, which means another 80% drop from the current price, a total drop of 90%, which is consistent with past bear markets.

0xQuit finally said: I personally tend to be bullish at this position, but my position layout can also accept the market to continue to fall. If you can't accept the worst expectations, please consider selling some.

Bravos Research: The crypto market is experiencing the largest altcoin liquidation since the LUNA crash

According to Bravos Research, the current cryptocurrency market is experiencing the largest altcoin liquidation since the LUNA crash in May 2022. The market has seen about $10 billion in liquidations, far exceeding the situation after the FTX crash. Data shows that Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, indicating that there is no obvious altcoin season signal in the short term.

Anthony Pompliano (Pomp): Trump deliberately crashed the market to force the Fed to cut interest rates

Crypto analyst Anthony Pompliano (Pomp) has a bold theory: the Trump administration may be deliberately creating chaos in the stock market in order to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to avoid the United States refinancing about $7 trillion in debt. Pomp pointed out that the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 4.8% in January to 4.21% now, indicating that the strategy is moving in the right direction.

Trump once said on Fox News that no one can get rich when interest rates are high because people can't borrow money. The market expects the Fed to maintain the current interest rate at its March meeting, but the possibility of a rate cut in May is close to 50%.

Eugene: A small limit order for long SOL at $113 has been triggered

Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that a small SOL limit order was triggered at $113 - let's see if this marks some form of short-term bottom.