Bitcoin breaks through $125,000 to hit a record high, and expectations of a Fed rate cut boost the "Uptober" market

On October 5th, Beijing time, the price of Bitcoin surpassed $125,000, setting a new all-time high. According to financial market data, Bitcoin's latest price reached $125,318, a 2.34% increase on the day, bringing its year-to-date gain to over 31%.

This breakthrough confirms the well-known "Uptober" seasonal trend in the cryptocurrency community—October is historically a strong month for Bitcoin.

01 Price Breakthrough

As of October 5, 2025, the price of Bitcoin surpassed $125,000 per coin, setting a new all-time high, with a 2.5% increase on the day. Data from some trading platforms shows Bitcoin's highest trading price reaching $125,689. This price performance marks Bitcoin's official breakthrough above previous resistance levels, opening up new price potential. With Bitcoin's strong rise, the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market is approaching $4.35 trillion, a 24-hour increase of 2.66%.

02 Seasonal Effect

Bitcoin's record high coincided with the cryptocurrency market's traditional "Uptober" season. Historical data shows that October is typically Bitcoin's strongest month. Since 2013, Bitcoin has seen gains in October in 10 of the 12 years, with an average gain of approximately 22%. Market analysts note that when Bitcoin closes higher in September, October typically sees even larger monthly gains. "Uptober has become a focal point for market sentiment," said one analyst.

03 Macro Boost

Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have become a key factor driving Bitcoin's gains. According to data from the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's October meeting has reached 96.2%. Bank of America's latest forecast also indicates that the Fed may begin cutting rates in October of this year, earlier than previously expected in December. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown has prompted investors to seek alternative assets outside the traditional financial system. "Bitcoin's independence makes it attractive to mainstream traditional investors," said Ryan Lee, an analyst at Bitget.

04 Market Reaction

The rapid rise in Bitcoin prices triggered massive leveraged liquidations. Data shows that within 24 hours, nearly 120,000 investors were liquidated, totaling approximately $347 million.

Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently remains in neutral territory at 49, indicating that investors remain cautious amidst positive price movements. Despite Bitcoin's strong performance, most altcoins have performed relatively modestly.

While most of the top 100 assets have returned to positive territory, their gains are far less pronounced than Bitcoin's.

The combination of expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and seasonal factors has created a perfect environment for a Bitcoin breakout. With the October Fed meeting approaching, the market has almost fully priced in the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut.

Bitcoin's correlation with the traditional financial system is growing. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the US government's fiscal situation, key drivers of traditional financial markets, now have a direct impact on Bitcoin's price.