The four-year cycle has failed. What happened in the crypto market in the past two years?

Is the four-year cycle dead?

In this article, I will answer this question, explain why the past two years have changed everything, and then make a very important suggestion. Let's get started.

What is the four-year cycle?

This four-year cycle stems from the fundamentals of Bitcoin. Every four years, Bitcoin's inflation rate halves. Back in 2012, the first halving event reduced the issuance of new Bitcoins by 50%, from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC.

This had a huge impact on the supply and demand balance of Bitcoin, especially during the first two halving events in 2012 and 2016. At that time, the price of Bitcoin soared because supply could not keep up with demand. Other cryptocurrencies (altcoins) also rose with it.

However, the impact of each new halving event on the price is getting weaker. The most recent Bitcoin halving in 2024 only reduced the issuance of new Bitcoins from 6.25 BTC to 3.12 BTC.

Considering that almost 95% of all Bitcoin is already in circulation (nearly 20 million BTC out of 21 million BTC), the impact of future halving events on price is quickly becoming negligible.

What worked a few years ago, no longer works today. You can’t “print free money” by buying any cryptocurrency like you did in the past. Today, we have new factors that have a more fundamental impact on crypto cycles than Bitcoin’s halving schedule.

It’s time to upgrade your thinking! More on that below.

Why have the last two years changed everything?

Two things that have changed the crypto space in the last two years are:

Crypto ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) coming online

Altcoin inflation

In early 2024, Bitcoin received its first ETF approval. This suddenly opened up the global market for Bitcoin. Now, anyone can add Bitcoin to their retirement portfolio, which was impossible in the past.

This represents a massive influx of new money into Bitcoin that didn’t exist before. But there’s a problem.

As money flows into Bitcoin ETFs, this creates buying pressure on the Bitcoin spot price. However, this liquidity never really leaves the Bitcoin ETF and flows to altcoins, because there are no altcoin ETFs other than Ethereum. And the demand for Ethereum ETFs has been disappointing so far, totaling only $2.5 billion.

As of early 2025, almost all ETF liquidity has flowed to Bitcoin, totaling $40 billion, as shown in the chart. No wonder Ethereum has been falling against Bitcoin for years. The same is true for most altcoins.

This is why everyone is still waiting for the "real" altcoin season for the past two years, which may never actually come. The altcoin rally in November 2024 pales in comparison to previous cycles.

While SOL, XRP, BNB, and TRX have set new all-time highs, these prices are not far from past highs, while most altcoins, such as Ethereum or ADA, have failed to set new all-time highs. This clearly shows that altcoins are lagging compared to Bitcoin.

The reason?

Dilution of altcoins.

There are simply too many altcoins today (millions) compared to previous cycles. I explored this in detail in a past article. In short, the altcoin season was hijacked by Solana and its meme coins. This essentially sucked all liquidity out of altcoins.

Shortly after, when Solana’s music was the loudest, Trump entered the stage in January 2025 and broke up the party. This also ended the memecoin season, with most memecoins plummeting 80% to 90% since then.

There is a finite amount of money or liquidity in crypto, and it is now being divided among millions of altcoins. And, Bitcoin is taking an increasing share. Just look at BTC’s market dominance, which is the highest it’s been since 2021 at over 60%!

Altcoins are in a tough spot. They only make up 40% of the market, and with millions of coins out there, there isn’t much money left for the altcoin season. If you’re going to play the altcoin game, you really need to choose carefully.

This brings me to an interesting analogy. In tennis, there are two types of games that players play:

People who play loser games (altcoins)

People who play winner games (Bitcoin)

In the first case, tennis players have to try to minimize their mistakes because by doing this, they can beat most opponents who make more mistakes. This is a loser game because losing less than most makes you a winner.

In the second case, tennis players are the best of the best. Their game is no longer about reducing points lost, but about skill and being a winner. This is a winner game played by winners (top players).

In crypto, if you play the altcoin game, you are playing the loser game, and to win, you need to pick altcoins that lose less than other coins. However, you can completely ignore this and choose to play the winner game by buying Bitcoin!

It's time to look at Bitcoin and why it will continue to win regardless of the four-year cycle narrative, which is no longer relevant based on the past two years.

Why Bitcoin is still king?

I promised to give you a suggestion at the beginning of the article.

The goal is to play the winner game and focus on Bitcoin. This is how you win in the long run. Limit your exposure to loser games (altcoins) to a manageable amount. Otherwise, things could get ugly very quickly.

With that premise, here are 10 reasons why betting on Bitcoin makes you a winner:

Fiat (USD) Dilution - Central banks can’t stop printing fiat money. Look at gold, it keeps hitting new highs. The same is true for Bitcoin in 2024, that $100,000 resistance will eventually break as well. Be patient.

Inflation - It’s easy to print new dollars out of thin air, but you can’t print Bitcoin out of thin air. This makes Bitcoin the hardest currency on the planet. That’s where you store your wealth.

Quantitative Tightening is coming to an end - This means that quantitative easing is coming, which will make fiat money dilution and inflation inevitable.

Global Money Supply Hits All-Time High - It’s not just the US that is diluting the wealth of its citizens, every country is doing it, just at different speeds. Look at the price of Bitcoin in Turkish Lira.

Gold - There seems to be no end in sight to its record-breaking price run since the end of 2023. What is better than gold? Bitcoin. Why is everyone buying gold? Because of points 1 to 4. It’s only a matter of time before people accept Bitcoin.

Crypto ETFs - Calling them crypto ETFs is a bit misleading because 95% of the money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs. This ratio is even more biased towards BTC than Bitcoin’s 60% market dominance.

Altcoin dilution - You can’t dilute Bitcoin. You can’t copy and paste it because you can’t copy its billions of dollars worth of security and mining equipment.

Countries are buying Bitcoin - Look at El Salvador. More and more countries are adding Bitcoin to their sovereign wealth funds.

US Strategic Crypto Reserve - This is basically what it means. No need to say more.

You don’t have a better choice - The only reliable currencies today are Bitcoin and gold, and the former has a clear advantage.

While Bitcoin’s four-year cycle will continue to exist, its impact on the price will be negligible at best. In this sense, the argument is no longer valid. However, the reason to continue buying Bitcoin is stronger than ever.

I can’t say the same for altcoins.

The game is getting harder and harder, and picking winners becomes a loser’s game over time. It’s the exact opposite of betting on Bitcoin and more like betting on the Turkish Lira to protect your wealth. We also know how that ended.