4E: Bitcoin Falls Below $100,000 Again, Risk Sentiment Shifts Sharply

November 14th news: According to 4E observations, the US government shutdown has officially ended, but the market has not rebounded. All three major US stock indices weakened, with the Nasdaq falling over 2.2% and the S&P 500 falling 1.6%. Bitcoin, amidst a general decline in risk assets, fell below the $100,000 mark again, hitting a low of approximately $98,000, a new low since May and the third time this month it has breached this key psychological level. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $550 million, of which long positions accounted for $423 million, with BTC and ETH liquidations reaching $168 million and $144 million respectively.

The market generally believes that this round of decline was triggered by a sharp drop in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the probability of a December rate cut falling from 85% last week to nearly 50/50. At the same time, the escalating controversy surrounding the AI bubble is impacting tech stocks. The cryptocurrency market's high correlation with US stocks, coupled with the October MEME coin crash weakening the profit-making effect, has led to continued pressure on Bitcoin. On the macro level, Luxembourg's sovereign wealth fund, FSIL, confirmed it will allocate 1% of its portfolio to Bitcoin, and the Finance Minister emphasized that Bitcoin is becoming part of Europe's competitive strategy.

4E Commentary: The short-term market is in a phase of "high volatility + weak expectations," with macroeconomic pressures and sentiment jointly suppressing Bitcoin's price movement. However, the increased activity on DEXs and the entry of sovereign wealth funds indicate that long-term funds are still positioning themselves, and bear market signals have not yet been fully confirmed.