One Year After Bitcoin Halving: Why This Cycle Looks So Different

It’s been a year since BTC’s most recent halving, and this cycle is showing a very different dynamic than in the past. Unlike previous cycles, which saw explosive gains after halvings, BTC’s gains this time have been more modest, rising only 31%, compared to a 436% gain in the previous cycle over the same time frame.

Meanwhile, long-term holder metrics such as the MVRV ratio show a sharp decline in unrealized profits, suggesting that the market is maturing and upside is compressed. Taken together, these changes suggest that BTC may be entering a new era, characterized less by parabolic peaks and more by incremental growth driven by institutions.

BTC One Year After Halving: A Cycle Unlike Any Other

This cycle of BTC is developing in a markedly different way than in previous cycles, which could signal a shift in how the market reacts to halving events.

In earlier cycles (particularly from 2012 to 2016, and from 2016 to 2020), BTC tended to see strong gains during this phase. The post-halving period is usually accompanied by strong upward momentum and parabolic price action, driven primarily by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

However, the current cycle has taken a different path. Instead of accelerating after the halving, prices began to surge in advance as early as October and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and a pullback in late February.

This pre-upward behavior is in stark contrast to historical patterns, where halvings often act as catalysts for sharp gains.

There are multiple factors contributing to this shift. No longer just a speculative asset driven by retail investors, BTC is increasingly being viewed as a mature financial instrument. Growing participation from institutional investors, coupled with macroeconomic pressures and changes in market structure, has led to a more cautious and complex market response.

Another clear sign of this evolution is the weakening intensity of each cycle. As BTC's market capitalization grows, the explosive gains of the early years are becoming increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, in the 2020-2024 cycle, BTC gained 436% a year after the halving.

In contrast, the current cycle’s gain over the same time frame is much more modest at 31%.

This shift could mean that BTC is entering a new chapter, characterized by lower volatility and more stable long-term growth. The halving may no longer be the primary driver, with other factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional money playing a larger role.

The rules of the game are changing, and so are BTC’s trends.

Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that previous cycles have also had a phase of consolidation and pullback before resuming the uptrend. While this phase may feel slower or less exciting, it could still represent a healthy correction before the next leg up.

That said, it’s still possible that this cycle could continue to deviate from historical patterns. Instead of a dramatic top bubble burst, it may present a more persistent and structurally sound uptrend that’s driven more by fundamentals than hype.

Long-Term Holder MVRV Ratio Reveals BTC Maturity

The market cap to MVRV ratio of long-term holders (LTH) has been a reliable indicator of unrealized profits. It shows the profits long-term investors have made before they start selling. But it is declining over time.

In the 2016-2020 cycle, the LTH MVRV ratio peaked at 35.8, indicating huge paper profits and a clear top in the making. By the 2020-2024 cycle, this peak dropped sharply to 12.2, even though BTC prices hit all-time highs at the time.

In this cycle, the highest value of the LTH MVRV ratio so far is only 4.35, a huge drop. This shows that long-term holders have made much less than in previous cycles, even though BTC prices have seen huge increases. The trend is clear: the earnings multiple is declining with each cycle.

BTC's explosive upside is being compressed and the market is maturing.

Now, the highest reading of the LTH MVRV ratio so far in this cycle is 4.35. This significant decline suggests that long-term holders are receiving a much lower multiple of earnings than in previous cycles, even with the significant price gains in BTC. This pattern points to the conclusion that BTC's upside is being compressed.

This is not a fluke. As markets mature, explosive gains are naturally harder to come by. The era of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more modest or more stable growth.

The growing market size means that exponentially more capital is required to significantly drive prices higher.

However, this does not confirm that the current cycle has peaked. Previous cycles often included long periods of consolidation or small corrections before reaching new highs.

As institutional investors play an increasingly important role, the accumulation phase may last longer. Therefore, the sell-off of peak profits may not be as sudden as in earlier cycles.

However, if the trend of declining MVRV ratio peaks continues, it could reinforce the view that BTC is moving from wild, cyclical surges to a more modest but structured growth pattern.

The most dramatic gains may be over, especially for investors who entered the market late in the cycle.