ETH/BTC under pressure, will buyers increase the price this time?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to new lows, sparking speculation of a capital rotation into risk assets, especially cryptocurrencies. Historically, a weaker dollar has supported liquidity inflows into Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH].

Trump’s import tax hikes have intensified selling pressure on the dollar, pushing it back to pre-election levels. However, AMBCrypto’s analysis highlights a key shift – BTC and DXY have decoupled, reducing the dollar’s reliability as a leading cryptocurrency market indicator.

However, macroeconomic catalysts are still in play. Bitcoin rallied back to $86,000 after trading below this level for 17 days, while Ethereum surged above $2,000, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff reduction announcement.

BTC’s current non-linear price action provides an opportunity for ETH to attract capital. The ETH/BTC pair shows growing momentum as the MACD turns bullish for the first time in nearly a month.

A clear support cluster has formed, marking the third compression phase in three months – suggesting a possible breakout and trend reversal for ETH.

If the breakout structure is confirmed, analysts expect a move towards 0.0019 BTC per ETH, with the pair currently hovering around 0.002 BTC.

However, technicals alone are not enough. Buyers failed to accumulate consistently in the previous demand zone, leading to liquidity drying up and a drop to a five-year low.

If history repeats itself, the likelihood of further liquidity sweeps remains high. In this case, ETH/BTC could extend its downtrend, further weakening Ethereum's relative strength against Bitcoin.

ETH/BTC: Fall extension or trend reversal?

For a confirmed ETH/BTC reversal, a BTC retracement remains a key trigger.

The current market structure suggests $89,000 as a major resistance zone for Bitcoin, following a failed breakout attempt on March 24, reinforcing overhead supply.

If BTC continues to face rejection at this level, a corrective move could unlock an ETH/BTC rotation, providing a potential bid for Ethereum's dominance.

However, bullish sentiment appears weak. Since the post-election rally, ETH has shown a stronger correlation with BTC’s downtrend, consistently forming lower highs.

On March 3, BTC’s 8.54% one-day drop drove ETH down 14.66%.

This structural shift suggests that Ethereum is increasingly sensitive to Bitcoin’s declines, rather than benefiting from capital rotation.

If BTC retraced significantly, ETH could lose the $2,000 liquidity zone, potentially causing ETH/BTC to fall to new cycle lows.