The new normal of “lowering expectations”: the survival rules and value reconstruction of the crypto market
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Next, the market will enter a big cycle of "lowering expectations":
1) Project builders lower their expectations. From a luxurious startup team with a financing of tens of millions and a valuation of hundreds of millions, they are now back to a financing of 100,000 dollars, which is not too little. They have the mentality of Xiaomi plus rifles, and the priority is to "survive";
2) VC investors lower their expectations. The high valuation model that followed the big VC Fomo is no longer effective. The VCs that survive will inevitably return to looking for small and beautiful innovative technology teams or Ponzi who can make trouble. Small investment, multiple targets, and fast exit will become the mainstream. What, gathering? It must meet the threshold of gathering;
3) Coin holders lower their expectations. In the past, they adhered to the "technical narrative + long-termism" and always wanted to follow the past empiricism to make a big one (10-100 times). In the future, retail investors will have to strengthen their "Trader" skills. On the premise of having some basic investment research and learning ability, they will appropriately increase the frequency of transactions and give up the illusion of hundreds or thousands of times. 3-5 times is already a hellish difficulty (except for pure PVP lottery logic). After all, everyone has learned a profound lesson from the cruel situation of this Holder generation;
4) Airdrop makers lower their expectations. When everyone gathers around the focus of attention to make money, it will actually narrow the potential space for airdrop rewards. After all, the studio's industrial assembly line is extremely mature. Therefore, it is highly likely that "quietly making money" will become the norm, and the investment of tens of thousands of money will become history. The main goal is to never bet heavily if you can make zero money, and never share opportunities with others if you can enjoy them privately;
5) Market narratives lower expectations. In the past, the Crypto market always pursued the "narrative resonance" effect. From DeFi, NFT, GameFi, to Restaking, BTCFi, chain abstraction, AI Agent, each round of narratives wanted to stage the glory of the former DeFi Summer, but facts have proved that the expected evolution of narratives has become weaker and weaker. It is difficult for the market to support a huge market bubble with a single technical narrative. Perhaps micro-narratives with multiple points will become the norm;
6) Chain infra construction lowers expectations. Crypto has always relied on continuously stacking infra narratives to expand expectations, from high-performance layer1 to Rolllup Layer2, as well as various chain architecture models that take differentiated technical routes, have proven that the era of pure technology as king is over, and the market will only turn to "attention as king" in the future. Infra with only technology but no community stickiness and continuous capital precipitation and circulation will lose the market;
7) CEX wealth effect falls short of expectations. For a long time, CEX has become the focus of public opinion and topics due to its control of the vast majority of liquidity. The so-called "CEX listing effect" and "DEX PVP free market" have become the A and B sides of the market's attention pursuit, but the result of relying too much on CEX to create a wealth effect is bound to be a weaker and weaker listing effect. In the final analysis, the wealth effect should be determined by the long-term Build cycle and the cost of getting on board the project.
