Multiple technical indicators rarely resonate: Is BTC preparing for a new round of breakthrough?

The crypto market has been through a round of doomsaying, pessimism, and macroeconomic chaos. Now, Bitcoin is back above $80,000 and may be preparing for a big rally after a healthy 30% pullback (a normal correction in any bull market).

So how big is it?

Well, there are multiple indicators flashing at the same time, some rarely at the same time, and some that haven’t appeared since Bitcoin’s last big rally, and this article will analyze them one by one.

1. Bullish crossover of the 3-day MACD indicator

One of the strongest short- to medium-term signals is a bullish crossover of the MACD indicator on the 3-day chart.

When was the last time this happened?

September 2023 - right before Bitcoin surged from below $60,000 to over $100,000, which is not accidental. Historically, these crossovers have all heralded major rallies - historical data shows that 5 out of the nearly 6 times this signal appeared, it triggered a strong rally.

We just had another one.

2. Battle of the 200-Day EMA

Bitcoin is in a fierce battle near the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key position that will be an important watershed for determining whether the trend will continue. We have been oscillating around this level for several days. If BTC can break through and stand above this EMA cleanly, it will be a classic confirmation signal for the resumption of the bull trend.

If it is strongly rejected, then... we will be back to "Goblin Town" (referring to a sharp drop in prices) for a while.

We are on the edge, keep your eyes open.

3. Attempt to break through the main downward trend line

A close look at the daily chart shows that Bitcoin is trying to break through a long-term downward trend line that has been formed since January 2024. If it can successfully break through, market sentiment may quickly turn optimistic.

4. Weekly RSI indicator is about to break through

The weekly relative strength index (RSI) is showing signs of recovery again. Why is this important?

In October 2023 and September 2024, RSI breakouts from the descending trendline were followed by immediate and explosive rallies – each time pushing Bitcoin to new highs, and we may see a similar situation if this breakout is confirmed.

5. The Miner Hashband Indicator Also Sends a Clear Buy Signal

The Miner Hashband Indicator also sends a clear buy signal, a unique indicator designed specifically for cryptocurrencies that identifies market bottoms by monitoring miner behavior. While the absolute low may be in the past, history shows that there is often more room to rise after this signal.

When the 30-day hash rate crosses the 90-day hash rate upward, that’s your buy signal.

6. Global Liquidity (M2) is Surging

This is the most important signal. The global M2 money supply just hit a record high. This is crucial – because cryptocurrencies are extremely sensitive to liquidity. When money flows freely, risk assets explode. Bitcoin thrives in easy financial conditions. Now? The printing press is starting up again. . .

7. Long-term Fibonacci extension target

From the perspective of long-term technical targets, Bitcoin's 2.618 Fibonacci extension level points to $156,000. In the last bull market, Bitcoin pulled back after hitting the 1.618 position (near $100,000), and now the market is accumulating strength to challenge the next key target.

Of course, the market still faces many uncertainties. Some technical indicators have not yet fully turned bullish, macroeconomic concerns (including trade frictions, recession risks, and bond market volatility) still exist, and market sentiment is also quite fragile and may turn at any time due to unexpected events. But as the market motto says: "Buying when you feel safe is often too late."

Although these signals cannot guarantee a 100% increase, when they appear collectively, they often mean that the market is at a critical turning point. We are still in the most favorable rising phase of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the global liquidity environment is improving, and both technical and on-chain indicators are sending positive signals. Although no one can be sure whether Bitcoin will directly hit the target of $156,000, for investors who believe in market cycles, now may be the last time to make arrangements before the next round of surge.