Trumpcoin: What’s driving it? How far can it go?

There is no shortage of wild ideas in the cryptocurrency space. But when such ideas are linked to a political figure like Donald Trump, a whole new and uncertain game begins - some call it "PoliFi" (political finance). As the popularity of "Trumpcoin" continues to rise, people who bet on such tokens have the same question: how much are they worth? This article will delve into the reasons behind the surge and collapse of these tokens, as well as the political and market atmosphere in which they are located.

There is not just one "Trumpcoin"

First of all, it should be clarified that "Trumpcoin" is not a single cryptocurrency. There are many Trump-branded tokens on the market, each with its own background story and ecosystem.

The most popular of these is the OFFICIAL TRUMP ($TRUMP) token on the Solana chain. The coin is said to have started circulation on January 17 or 18, 2025, and is nicknamed "Trump's Official Emoji Coin". Due to its overwhelming publicity related to Trump, it quickly attracted a lot of attention. The total number of tokens is said to be 1 billion, of which 80% (i.e. 800 million) are held by CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC, which are related to the Trump Organization. This part of the tokens will be gradually released over three years. 200 million tokens are actually in circulation in the initial market.

In addition to this "official version", there are other tokens such as MAGA (TRUMP) on the market, which are usually issued based on Ethereum or other blockchains, and the concept is mostly centered around the slogan "Make America Great Again". Some creators of tokens even claim that they will donate part of the proceeds to support Trump-related activities or conservative organizations. However, apart from the $TRUMP token on Solana, it is still questionable whether other tokens have been officially recognized by Trump himself or his team.

Potential factors driving the surge in Trump coins

The following points may drive the value of these Trump-related tokens to rise:

Landing on mainstream exchanges: If these tokens land on large exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, Kraken or OKX, they will attract more retail investors' attention, thereby pushing up prices. The "Binance effect" is common in the field of meme coins. Rumor has it that Coinbase has included Official Trump ($TRUMP) on its list of candidates for listing.

Political winds in Trump's favor: Any news in Trump's favor, such as political gains or rising polls, will stimulate investor enthusiasm for his related tokens, especially those that are seen as "derivatives" of his political prospects. Trump's recent friendly statements on cryptocurrencies, such as his hope that the United States will become a "crypto capital" or relax regulations, may also be a catalyst for price increases.

Viral marketing and community enthusiasm: The success or failure of meme coins often depends on the popularity of social media. If they spark strong discussions on platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), Telegram or Reddit and are promoted by influential people, their prices tend to soar.

Real-world use or unique benefits: Most meme coins lack real-world use, but some Trump coins try to provide substantial returns to holders. For example, the $TRUMP token has launched reward mechanisms such as "Dinner with Trump" or offers prizes such as signed NFTs. In addition, Travala.com has reportedly begun accepting $TRUMP as a payment method.

Overall market bull market: When the entire crypto market rises, especially when Bitcoin leads the rise, high-risk assets such as memecoins also tend to benefit.

Risk factors leading to a crash

Although the rise has its logic, Trumpcoin still faces multiple risks that may cause its value to plummet rapidly:

Trump's political risks are increasing: If Trump is involved in major legal disputes, public support declines, or his political prospects are unclear, it may cause investor confidence to collapse, triggering a sell-off.

Regulatory crackdown: At present, the regulation of political memecoins is unclear. If the SEC and other institutions intervene in the investigation or determine that these tokens are unregistered securities, it will be a fatal blow to them. In addition, the legality and ethics of such currencies being linked to politicians are constantly questioned.

Whales manipulate the market: Since a large number of tokens are concentrated in a few large accounts or project-related wallets, once they choose to sell them on a large scale, the price may collapse instantly. In May 2025, there were reports that wallets related to Trumpcoin transferred huge amounts of funds to exchanges, causing market panic.

Hype subsides: Memecoins are highly dependent on hype and popularity. Once market attention shifts or new hot spots emerge, the desire to buy old tokens will quickly fade.

Developers run away or projects fail: If the project lacks transparency, the code has bugs, or the team abandons development midway, the token may quickly depreciate. Although $TRUMP is considered more legitimate, the risk still exists in the highly speculative environment of memecoins.

Extreme volatility of memecoins: By nature, these coins are the most volatile in the crypto market, and the rise and fall of prices are often driven more by sentiment and community enthusiasm than actual value support.

Market sentiment and expert opinions

Opinions on Trumpcoin are very different. By mid-May 2025, the official $TRUMP price on Solana was far below its all-time high of about $75 in January. But overall, the coin still has a high market value and active trading, indicating that investors are still actively betting on its potential.

For example, coin holder welfare programs such as "Dinner with Trump" have significantly driven buying sentiment. Chart analysts are also divided on the coin's prospects - some are bearish, while others are bullish based on the long-term political situation.

Industry leaders also have different views. Ethics experts worry that such tokens have conflicts of interest; some senior crypto investors believe that political meme coins have damaged the reputation of cryptocurrencies; while others believe that this is a new way to participate in politics and raise funds. For example, Anthony Scaramucci has harshly criticized these tokens, while Trump himself has recently taken a more positive attitude towards cryptocurrencies.

What's next? It's still unknown

Predicting the future price trend of Trumpcoin is almost an impossible task. It is more like a roller coaster driven by emotions and hot spots. The political developments in the United States, Trump's public remarks, regulatory policy changes, and even the ups and downs of community enthusiasm may affect its price.

Although factors such as listing on major exchanges, favorable political news and virality may push up prices, risks such as market manipulation, regulatory crackdowns and fading hype are also very real. These tokens are not built on solid fundamentals, but rely on ever-changing public opinion and emotions.

For anyone considering entering this crypto-political show, it is important to remain vigilant, fully understand the risks, and be prepared to lose everything. After all, these tokens, while exciting, are also extremely volatile and often lack real and reliable value support.