Quantum computing in 2026 will not cause cryptocurrency collapse, but the risk of "collect first, then decrypt" should be noted.

Recently, experts from several institutions, including Argentum AI and Coin Bureau, pointed out in interviews that by 2026, the threat posed by quantum computing to cryptocurrencies will remain primarily theoretical rather than an imminent real-world risk.

Clark Alexander, head of artificial intelligence at Argentum AI, stated that the commercial applications of quantum computing are expected to be "extremely limited" by 2026. Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, also believes that "90% of the current discussion about the 'quantum threat' is marketing hype," and stated that a quantum computer capable of breaking existing cryptography is "at least ten years away."

Despite the overall distant risk, experts still point out potential weaknesses in the public-key cryptography relied upon by blockchain networks like Bitcoin. Sofiia Kireieva, an expert at Boosty Labs, analyzed that the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used to generate private and public keys is the weakest link in the current system, while the SHA-256 hash function is relatively more quantum resistant.

Ahmad Shadid, founder of the O Foundation, added that reusing addresses significantly increases the risk of private keys being compromised. According to statistics, approximately 25% to 30% of Bitcoin (about 4 million coins) is currently stored in addresses with exposed public keys.

These addresses are more vulnerable to attack once quantum computing matures. Sean Ren, co-founder of Sahara AI, warned that the real threat in 2026 is not an instantaneous system crash, but rather the potential for attackers to massively collect exposed encrypted data for decryption when quantum computing becomes feasible. Leo Fan, co-founder of Cysic, described this scenario as a "collect first, decrypt later" attack strategy.

To address this potential threat, the crypto community has begun taking action. For example, Qastle announced in November plans to upgrade its underlying cryptography to provide quantum-level security for its hot wallets.

Experts generally advise users to avoid reusing addresses and to migrate assets promptly once quantum-resistant wallet technology matures.

Overall, while a "quantum apocalypse" is unlikely in 2026, quantum computing has gradually become a high-level risk factor in the field of crypto security that requires continued attention. (Source: ME)