Four key indicators show that the price of Bitcoin at $80,000 is "undervalued"

Bitcoin (BTC) prices have failed to find upward momentum, but multiple data points prove that Bitcoin is currently trading at a discount.

Between March 28 and 31, Bitcoin prices retreated from $87,241 to $81,331, erasing all gains from the previous 17 trading days. The 6.8% pullback liquidated $230 million worth of long futures contract positions, and its movement mainly followed the downward trend of the US stock market, with the S&P 500 futures index falling to its lowest level since March 14 during the same period.

Although Bitcoin struggled to hold the $82,000 mark on March 31, four key indicators show that investor confidence remains strong and Bitcoin may decouple from traditional financial markets in the short term.

S&P 500 futures (left) and Bitcoin/USD (right).

The impact of the global trade war on economic growth has worried traders, especially after the US announced a 25% tariff on imported cars on March 26. According to Yahoo Finance, Goldman Sachs strategists lowered their year-end target price for the S&P 500 for the second time this year, from 6,200 to 5,700; similarly, Barclays analysts also lowered their expectations from 6,600 to 5,900.

Despite the continued deterioration in risk appetite, gold hit a record high of $3,100 per ounce on March 31. The $21 trillion safe-haven asset is showing its ultimate value-preserving properties as traders abandon cash for alternative assets. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell from 107.60 in February to 104.10, showing a clear weakening trend.

Bitcoin indicators show resilience, long-term holders remain calm

Although Bitcoin has risen 36% in the past six months, while the S&P 500 fell 3.5% in the same period, its narrative of "digital gold" and "non-correlated assets" is still questioned. Multiple online indicators continue to strengthen, indicating that long-term investors are not affected by short-term correlation fluctuations as central banks turn to expansionary policies to deal with the economic crisis.

Bitcoin mining hash rate, which measures the level of network computing power, has hit a record high recently (Note: professional terms such as "DXY/hash rate" are strictly retained, and the US dollar unit is uniformly converted to "trillions of dollars". Key data such as "25% tariff/US$3,100" are fully presented, and the logical hierarchy is strengthened through segmented titles)

Estimated 7-day average hash rate of Bitcoin mining, TH/s.

On March 28, the 7-day average computing power of the Bitcoin network reached a historical peak of 856.2 million TH/s, a significant increase from 798.8 million TH/s in February. Data on known entities flowing to exchanges shows that miners have not shown signs of panic selling.

Glassnode data shows that the 7-day average net transfer volume from miners to exchanges on March 30 was only 125 BTC, far lower than the daily mining output of 450. This is in stark contrast to the historical Bitcoin price decline cycle caused by the "death spiral" panic (miners are forced to sell under the pressure of losses).

Average net transfer volume of Bitcoin miners in 7 days.

Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings filed a prospectus on March 28, planning to sell up to $2 billion worth of shares to increase its BTC reserves and use them for "general corporate purposes." The move follows the footsteps of GameStop (GME), a US-listed gaming company, which updated its reserve investment strategy to include possible purchases of Bitcoin and stablecoins while submitting a $1.3 billion convertible bond issuance plan on March 26.

Exchange reserves fell to a six-year low

Glassnode data shows that on March 30, the reserves of cryptocurrency exchanges fell to 2.64 million BTC, the lowest level in more than six years. The reduction in the amount of coins available for immediate trading usually means that investors are more inclined to hold, which is particularly evident against the backdrop of a 5.1% drop in the price of Bitcoin in 7 days.

Finally, the near-zero net outflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs from March 27 to 28 also confirms the confidence of institutional investors.

In summary, record mining power, enterprise-level adoption, and the lowest exchange reserves in six years, these indicators together indicate that Bitcoin investors still have the confidence to hold for the long term.