Trump wields the "tariff stick" to bloodbath the world, and the crypto market reappears "Black Monday"

As Trump wields the "tariff stick", the global capital market has fallen into a vortex of violent turbulence. The macroeconomic negatives are superimposed on the liquidity crisis, the positions of whales have been liquidated one after another, panic selling has occurred one after another, and the bulls have been hit hard and left the market... This storm caused by policies has once again put the crypto market in a severe test of survival.

The crypto market was bloodbathed by the tariff storm, and the whales were liquidated

"Black Monday" hit the world again. Since Trump announced a large-scale tariff increase, the reaction of the financial market has continued to ferment. From traditional stock markets to crypto markets, risky assets have been sold off across the board.

According to CoinGecko data, in the past 24 hours, the total market value of global cryptocurrencies fell by 9.7%, shrinking to 2.53 trillion US dollars. Among them, the price of BTC once fell below the 77,000 mark, and ETH fell below 1,600 US dollars.

Under the violent market fluctuations, the bulls suffered a heavy blow. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has been liquidated by about 986 million US dollars, of which long orders have been liquidated by 850 million and short orders have been liquidated by 136 million. Among them, the liquidation amount of BTC reached 328 million US dollars, and ETH was about 293 million US dollars. Judging from the funding rates of mainstream CEX and DEX, the current rates are generally lower than 0.005%, indicating that market participants generally tend to be bearish and bearish sentiment is dominant.

The risk of on-chain liquidation is also significantly increasing. For example, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale is facing liquidation. It provided 292.77 WBTC (about 23.05 million US dollars) and 964.39 COMP (about 38,000 US dollars) to borrow USDT and DAI, and the liquidation price was 76,284 US dollars. According to PeckShield monitoring, a giant whale was liquidated after WETH fell below 1,700 US dollars because it mortgaged 9,370 WETH to borrow 12.8 million US dollars in USDT. The liquidator seized a total of 4,480 WETH, about 7.26 million US dollars.

According to on-chain analyst Ember, as the market fell, a whale address's loan position totaling 67,500 ETH (about $105 million) was completely liquidated when ETH fell to around $1,650. The whale address added 2,160 ETH as collateral at 1 a.m. (April 7) to lower the liquidation line, but was eventually liquidated at around 6 a.m. to repay its $74.4 million DAI loan. At the same time, a whale who used leverage to invest in AAVE is also facing liquidation risks. If the price of AAVE drops another $7 (to $123), its 102,000 AAVE positions (worth $13.08 million) will be liquidated. From the purchase to the end of last year, the whale's floating profit was as high as $21.33 million, but now it has a floating loss of $3.58 million and has never sold. Another whale holding 57,000 ETH currently has a liquidation price of $1,564, and was almost liquidated at the same price as the 67,500 ETH position. Because it actively reduced its position a few days ago, it was barely able to avoid risks. At present, its position is still on the edge of the liquidation line, and it is expected that it will need to continue to reduce its position to reduce risks.

As the market panic rapidly heats up, many whales choose to cut losses. For example, Lookonchain monitors that a whale address panic-sold 14,014 ETH (about 22.14 million US dollars) in the past 3 hours; well-known trader Eugene wrote that his BTC position (which had been reduced) that he built on Friday last week has been automatically liquidated in today's decline because it fell below the stop loss price; before today's market crash, a whale address deposited the remaining 778.5 BTC (about 64.33 million US dollars) into Binance to cut losses, and the loss of this position was 2.53 million US dollars. A whale unstaked 202,604 SOL and deposited it in Binance 2 hours ago, worth $24.3 million. The whale withdrew 201,755 SOL (worth $25 million) from Binance at $124 on March 13, and currently has a loss of about $678,000. According to OnchainLens monitoring, a whale/institution deposited 1,000 BTC (worth $77.58 million) in Binance and 354.34 BTC (worth $27.49 million) in a new wallet address, facing a loss of $9.04 million.

Bear market signals have appeared? Investors may face a severe game cycle

As the Trump administration's promotion of the "reciprocal tariff" policy has caused severe turmoil in the global market, investor confidence has suffered a heavy blow. According to the latest survey by Forbes, Wall Street elites' support for Trump's economic policies has declined significantly, and market buying has almost disappeared. Despite the rapid spread of distrust in the current policy in the financial circle, Trump still insisted that "sometimes the market has to 'take medicine'" and firmly believed that the tariff policy will bring "very good things" to the United States in the long run.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, pointed out that most of Trump's supporters are groups that do not hold a large number of financial assets, which makes him more confident in implementing a tough tariff policy. Hayes reminded investors that if they want to predict when the Fed will restart easing, they should pay attention to the bond market volatility indicator MOVE index. When MOVE rises, traders who finance the purchase of US bonds or corporate bonds will face higher margin requirements and be forced to close their positions. Once MOVE breaks through 140, the Fed may intervene in the market.

Goldman Sachs also adjusted its expectations for the Fed's rate cuts, saying that if a recession hits the United States, the risk of further easing by the Fed is higher. The bank expects the Fed to start a series of rate cuts in June, earlier than the previous forecast of July, as part of a preventive easing cycle. If the economy does fall into a recession, the Fed will take a more aggressive policy response and cut interest rates by about 200 basis points next year. Taking into account the increased possibility of recession, the agency's current weighted forecast shows that a total rate cut of 130 basis points will be made in 2025, higher than the previous 105 basis points.

As the "reciprocal tariff" will officially take effect on April 9, it may further exacerbate global market volatility, and investors will face an increasingly severe game cycle.

"The Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended, and the realized market value (Realized Cap) in the on-chain data shows that the market has shown typical bear market signals: although funds continue to flow into the market, prices have not risen accordingly. He further explained that when small funds can drive prices up, it indicates a bull market; and when large funds cannot push up prices, it means that a bear market is coming." CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju bluntly stated that although selling pressure may be reduced at any time, based on historical experience, a real market reversal usually takes at least six months, and the possibility of a rebound in the short term is low.

Andrew Kang, partner of Mechanism Capital, also supports the bear market argument. He admitted that he had not paid close attention to cryptocurrencies in the past few months, but it seemed very likely that ETH would return to $1,000-1,500 this year. With the speculative wave clearly over, it was ridiculous for an asset with negative growth/profit to have a market value of $215 billion.

Eugene wrote that this decline was not only unprecedented in the crypto market, but also in the entire stock market. I vaguely felt that as long as I dealt with it properly, I might be able to create wealth that could change my destiny after this storm passed. But now, survival is the key.