Why are more and more people leaving the crypto industry recently?

‍"When the tide recedes, you will know who is swimming naked." Buffett's words are probably the best way to describe the current Crypto market. In the past period of time, we have always heard or seen some news about XXX "retiring". This kind of news is more not from complaints or complaints, but has become an expression of the current state of the industry.

As for why these people choose to leave this industry, the author has roughly tracked it, and there are only the following main reasons.

First of all, the most common reason is that due to the bleak market conditions in the past period of time or the changes brought about by the market conditions, some people have to temporarily leave this industry to find "new life"; secondly, in the past one or two years, Web3 has been in a kind of "morbid" growth that is not pleasing, and some value creators choose to leave this field because they cannot see the real value growth; in addition, some people have seen the rise of AI and think that Web3 has become a thing of the past, and they will pursue new blue ocean markets.

Of course, the above reasons are obviously different when broken down to individuals, but all these reasons cannot be transformed from local to overall. After all, most people in the market still choose to wait and see or continue to build, because this industry, which has been developing for more than ten years, is not the first time to face such a dilemma.

It’s just because some people who leave this industry may be some influential KOLs, so it seems to affect the mentality of many people. But the author believes that this stage is the real test of Builder. Putting aside these superficial impetuousness, we need to see more things in the industry that are changing or have not been changed. Here I will make a brief description from the following three aspects.

Has the Web3 industry entered the red ocean from the blue ocean?

According to a research report released by BTC financial services company River in March, only 4% of the world’s population currently holds BTC, of which the highest proportion of BTC holders is in the United States, with about 14% of people holding BTC. From the perspective of the development stage, the current BTC adoption rate is equivalent to the Internet in 1990 or mobile social networking in 2005.

Through this simple data analysis, we can see that the current adoption rate of digital assets led by BTC is still in its early stages, far less than the so-called red ocean market. Even from the perspective of industry influence, traditional financial giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity have just entered the market. Just imagine, will they be so stupid as to come in and take over?

From the perspective of logic and data analysis, we must admit that if digital assets are the future development direction or Web3 is the intersection of the Internet and AI, then the most likely possibility of this game is that it has just run from the starting point to the midpoint, and there is still a long way to go.

Is the Web3 market only left with the exaggerated MEME narrative?

Of course, for many value creations in this industry, the most criticized thing in the past year is naturally the explosion of MEME, because MEME has attracted too much attention, and because of MEME, many people who entered this industry have suffered a purge, and even lost confidence in the industry, but as the author said in the previous Weekly, MEME is in the process of evolution, and after experiencing a bubble, it needs a new recovery and growth, and this growth may bring value to the industry.

Secondly, we should not only see some superficial changes in hot spots. Builders are still building, and value projects are still looking for their own breakthroughs. Through the changes in the number of active developers over the past year, we can see that despite the decline, it is still at a high level.

Although it seems that the market has become deserted and lacks a breakthrough narrative like DeFi in the previous cycle, looking back at the past is always full of opportunities, but looking at the future is less confident, but isn't this the law of development and change of any thing?

Even if we look back at the Web3 industry in 2018, it is still extremely bad, even dozens of times worse than now, but these did not hinder the subsequent outbreak. We need time and patience to wait for the process from quantitative change to qualitative change.

Will the Web3 market continue to "fall"?

Finally, it is naturally about the price. More than 90% of people will feel that this cycle is very different from the previous ones and there are not many similarities, so many "carving a boat to seek a sword" predictions have become cannon fodder, but if the concept of the cycle is still valid, then we are likely to be in this cycle, but without the crazy general rise in the past.

Recently, due to the GS problem, the US stock market plummeted, evaporating nearly 6.5 trillion US dollars in market value in two days. The three major US stock indexes all recorded the largest two-day decline and the largest weekly decline since March 2020. This has also led to a more extreme market in the global financial market, and whether this fluctuation can be improved in the short term needs to be viewed with caution.

Therefore, when BTC has retreated nearly 30%, when the financial market encounters a major change that occurs once in a few years, can the entire Crypto market still be immune? Perhaps this is a difficult question to answer.

But our earliest economist, Fan Li, who is also known as the "God of Wealth", has a classic saying worth savoring, "The more expensive, the cheaper; the more expensive, the more expensive; the more expensive, the more cheap, the more expensive." Perhaps we are now in a delicate moment of "treating everything as dirt."

Will BTC eventually reach 500,000 USD per coin? It sounded like a joke to say BTC would reach 1 million USD per coin 7 years ago. Now it seems that it is not far away. Living in the present, we must always face reality, but facing the future, we must remain cautious and optimistic, keep on the road, and keep building.